Most of the talk about November's Regional Transit Measure centers on BART station closures and Muni line cuts. In Santa Clara County, the picture is more mixed. The county's main transit agency says it isn't planning cuts no matter how the vote goes, while Caltrain riders south of San Jose could lose the most.

What the measure does

The measure, created by Senate Bill 63, would raise the sales tax by half a percentage point in Alameda, Contra Costa, San Mateo and Santa Clara counties and by a full point in San Francisco. The tax would start April 1, 2027, and run for 14 years. It is expected to raise about $980 million a year. San José Spotlight reports that about $245 million a year, roughly a quarter of the total, would go to the Santa Clara Valley Transportation Authority (VTA).

VTA: no cuts, but no upgrades

VTA projects a $15 million deficit by 2027, but it is in far better shape than its neighbors and isn't planning service reductions whether the measure passes or fails, according to San José Spotlight. VTA board chair Sergio Lopez, a Campbell councilmember, told the outlet that without the measure, riders' service "would not get better," and that passage would "unlock a lot of possibilities."

Caltrain and BART face bigger gaps

The other two systems serving the county are under more pressure. Caltrain expects a $75 million deficit in the fiscal year that starts next July, and BART expects a $370 million gap, San José Spotlight reported. If the tax fails, Caltrain has said it could cut peak weekday trains from every 15 minutes to once an hour, end service at 9 p.m., close more than a third of its stations and drop weekend service.

Pat Burt, a Palo Alto councilmember who represents VTA on Caltrain's board, told San José Spotlight that the San Jose-to-Gilroy segment "would very much be on the table" because it has by far the highest subsidy per passenger.

The opposition's case

The Committee for Affordable Bay Area Transit argues the agencies are presenting worst-case scenarios. Committee officer Thunder Parley told San José Spotlight that the agencies will still receive billions from existing funding sources and should manage that money better. He pointed to South County Caltrain service as an example of high costs per rider.

Where the vote stands

The measure needs more than 50% to pass. A recent poll cited by SFGATE put support at 48%. KALW reports that more than 220 elected officials and 200 business and community groups have endorsed it. Backers say it would prevent what they call "catastrophic" cuts across the region.

Election Day is Nov. 3.